"Hussein Was Sure Of Own Survival"

So reports WaPo, yesterday:

Saddam Hussein refused to order a counterattack against U.S. troops when war erupted in March because he misjudged the initial ground thrust as a ruse and had been convinced earlier by Russian and French contacts that he could avoid or survive a land invasion, former Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz has told interrogators, according to U.S. officials....

Aziz's extensive interrogations -- eased by a U.S. decision to quietly remove his family from Iraq to safe exile in a country that American officials would not name -- paint Hussein on the eve of war as a distracted, distrustful despot who was confused, among other things, by his meetings with Russian and French intermediaries. Aziz said Hussein emerged from these diplomatic sessions -- some secret at the time -- convinced that he might yet avoid a war that would end his regime, despite ample evidence to the contrary....

In any event, Hussein emerged from these contacts convinced that Washington would not launch an immediate invasion of Iraq, according to Aziz, as U.S. officials described his statements. Even as U.S. and British forces massed on the Kuwaiti border, Hussein was so sure of himself, Aziz reportedly said, that he refused to order an immediate military response when he heard reports that American ground forces were pouring into Iraq, concluding that the crossing was some sort of feint....

Though I wasn't considering behind-the-scenes maneuvering by the French and the Russians, that's pretty much what I thought — back in April:

.... I think there are two explanations for this bewildering response to what was, perhaps, the most telegraphed-in-advance warfare in history. First, Saddam was pretty much convinced that the war would never come: the rising pro-Saddam "anti-war" movement in the rest of the world would have encouraged him to think so. Second, the regime was pretty much convinced that the coalition's will to war would collapse if enough casualties were inflicted early on; Bill Clinton's ignominious stint as commander-in-chief would have encouraged them to think so....

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Tue. 11/04/03 06:50:38 AM
Categorized as War.