"Poll Tax"

After the Iowa caucuses, I wrote that The Big News Out Of Iowa was "The pollsters blew it big time".

At CJR's Campaign Desk yesterday, Zachary Roth notes the same issues with this week's Wisconsin primary:

The story of polls, the press, and Tuesday's Wisconsin primary is not a pretty one, and there are no heroes.

In the smoking wreckage of the aftermath, it was painfully noticeable that pollsters and just about the entire campaign press failed to predict the late surge in Wisconsin that carried Sen. John Edwards to renewed prominence.

There was a precedent that reporters might have paid attention to here. In Iowa, polls taken even the day before the contest showed the race to be almost a four-way dead-heat, between Edwards, John Kerry, Howard Dean, and Dick Gephardt. Those polls didn't come close to predicting Kerry's margin of victory, particularly over Dean and Gephardt, who lost by 20 and 27 points respectively....

He continues by explicating that some folks both in media and among pollsters tend to like to emphasize poll results that make for a more interesting story, and that such preferences can give rise to very misleading analysis.

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Sat. 02/21/04 11:42:39 AM
Categorized as Media & Political.