John Kerry Is In Really Big Trouble Again

Democrats in Self-Destruct Mode CCLVI

When even the New York Times writes about his campaign this way.

Are you more miserable now than you were four years ago?

It might depend on how you measure "misery."

Taking a new tack on an economic yardstick that dates back three decades, Senator John Kerry's presidential campaign has created a "middle-class misery index," which, not surprisingly, has "hit a record" under President Bush. To counter these numbers, Mr. Bush's re-election spin machine points to the original, simpler misery index, which it claims is "at a modern historic low for a president facing re-election."

That first misery index, invented by the late Arthur Okun, an economic adviser to former Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, was an easy-to-grasp gauge that combined monthly unemployment figures with the annual percent change in the consumer price index, otherwise known as inflation. It peaked at about 21 back in 1980, and in February sat at 7.29, which is down a tiny bit since President Bush took office (See chart at www.house.gov/jec/press/2002/miseryindex.pdf) and, as noted by the campaign, lower than where it was when Bill Clinton sought re-election in 1996 (8.22), not to mention Mr. Bush's father in 1992 (9.46), Ronald Reagan in 1984 (12.49) and Jimmy Carter in 1980 (20.46).

Though it has been cited in practically every national (and many local) elections for more than a generation, this misery index was apparently not good — or, perhaps, complicated — enough for the Kerry camp. So they collected seven data points (median family income, college tuition, health-care costs, gas prices, bankruptcy rates, homeownership rate and private-sector job growth) to make their own index. All but one of these indicators — home ownership — have fallen over the past three years.

"We were trying to pick the kitchen-table issues," explained Gene Sperling, chief of Mr. Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers, and an architect of Mr. Kerry's economic plans. "We were trying to look at what are the things that most affect families' pocketbooks every day."

This newfangled misery index, in case you weren't confused yet, is measured in the opposite way from its better-known progenitor — a higher number means less, not more, misery.

Under President Bush (the current one), the Kerry misery index has fallen 13 points, the worst three-year decline ever (other bad patches were 1979-82 and 1989-92, which, depending on your perspective, either creates a convenient pattern around new Republican presidents or an odd coincidence relating to the start of decades). Mr. Sperling's old boss, former President Clinton, saw this middle-class misery index shoot up (remember, up is good, down miserable) 23 points during his tenure; the current President's father watched it fall (down = bad) 12 points.

The Bush campaign denounced the new index as "bogus," noting that it gives President Carter a better rating (plus 6) over his tenure than President Reagan (minus 5).

Are you more miserable now than when you started reading this?

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The. New. York. Times!

See also John Kerry Is In Really Big Trouble.

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Tue. 04/13/04 06:03:42 PM
Categorized as Democrats in Self-Destruct Mode & John Kerry & Media.