"Bush Is Strengthened in the Crucible of Sept. 11 Panel, Many Experts Say"

Democrats in Self-Destruct Mode CCLXXI

Oopsie.

Two years ago, President Bush resisted creating an independent commission to investigate the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Many Republicans feared a political witch hunt.

Bush relented soon after the first Sept. 11 anniversary, and today, after days of televised hearings by the bipartisan panel, it is hard to find evidence that Americans hold him personally responsible for not preventing the kamikaze hijackings that took down the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon.

Recent polls show no measurable damage to Bush's re-election campaign, and the public seems more focused on Iraq than on the horrors of Sept. 11. While Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have yet to be questioned, many political experts say the commission's proceedings so far have strengthened Bush in unexpected ways.

The panel's work "has been a plus for the American people and hasn't damaged him in ways he was concerned about," said Michael Traugott, a University of Michigan professor of political science and communication studies.

Traugott said competing events "like Iraq and the need for additional troops" may have distracted public attention, while the evident partisanship of some commission members would have reinforced existing divisions in the electorate.

Overall, he said, "the public understands that there was a breakdown in functions of government. But this was somewhere in the bureaucracy and shouldn't be attributed to either incumbent president, Clinton or Bush, but that now something needs to be done about it."

The commission also provided a forum for Bush administration officials, including National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, to respond to critical accounts such as former counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke's book, "Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror."

Bush "absolutely had to have the commission," said James Thurber, director of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies. "It was like lancing something, or inoculating himself to a certain extent from damage."

Without the panel, Thurber said, "Clarke and others would have defined reality."

Fighting terrorism is still Bush's political strong suit, noted Alan Abramowitz, professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta.

"The more salient that issue is, the better it might be for Bush. The commission is keeping the issue in the public eye," Abramowitz said. "Maybe pushing other issues off the front page and out of the headlines works to Bush's advantage."

Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, has been unable to exploit the panel's disclosures even when they have raised questions about Bush's performance, several experts said.

"Democrats completely failed to capitalize on it — they've done a poor job of making political hay here," said R. Bruce Anderson, visiting assistant professor of political science at Tennessee's Sewanee: The University of the South.

The commission has "sucked the oxygen out of the Kerry campaign," agreed Shaun Bowler, professor of political science at the University of California, Riverside. "So the decision to have the commission turned out to be a smart one. Cover-up is worse than the crime itself, and blocking the commission would have looked like a cover-up."

Unsurprisingly, Democratic analysts have a different view, despite polls showing Bush ahead of Kerry. A Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted April 15-18 showed Bush with 48 percent to Kerry's 43 percent, while in a CNN-USA Today poll done at the same time, Bush led 50-44.

"I think Bush is in trouble," said Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster. The president's continued strength in polls is a reflexive and temporary response to escalating violence in Iraq, Greenberg said — a "rally to support the troops and the commander in chief while we are facing this kind of threat."

Celinda Lake, another Democratic pollster, said her surveys show some decline in confidence in Bush on homeland security and terrorism. "People have major reservations," she said.

And at least one Republican is cautious in his assessment.

Any benefit to Bush from the commission's work is "inadvertent," said Roger Stone, a GOP consultant who has worked for Thomas Kean, the former New Jersey governor whose chairmanship of the Sept. 11 commission has drawn praise for even-handedness.

"Bush not only resisted the formation but the scope and the reach of commission, and you can see why now," Stone said. "There have been embarrassing moments and there are a lot of loose ends."

The commission's final report is due July 26.

"I think you'll get a document which both supporters and critics will claim proves their point," Stone said. "There will be criticism (of the president), but not so devastating as to produce a shift. In the end, I think it will not be very helpful or detrimental to Bush — it'll be a wash."

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Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Sat. 04/24/04 07:14:58 AM
Categorized as Democrats in Self-Destruct Mode.