Blink: Lose

"But what is needed above all is consistent political and military willpower, publicly demonstrated and explained. Without this, the media will create the future."

There's a scary thought if there ever was one.

An excellent analysis by Charles Moore at The London Telegraph, May 11:

.... It is necessary, but not sufficient, to point out that much of the drama at this moment is generated by politics. Mr Bush is seeking re-election (and Tony Blair is not far behind him). He therefore desperately needs everything to look good. His opponents (and these include almost all the television networks both here and in America) even more desperately want it to look bad. Even people who, in essence, support the war, such as John Kerry in America and Michael Howard here, feel a bit happier with bad news than is altogether decent.

And, of course, the terrorists have their electoral politics too. They believe they have got rid of a government in Spain. Think of the joy of unseating an American president. The transfer of sovereignty in Iraq – whatever, exactly, that means – takes place on June 30. So many people have such strong motives for trying to knock the baton out of the hand that tries to pass it. Expect even more sound and fury between now and July. And do not expect the cameras to show you those large expanses of Iraq where there is order, running water, regular electricity and well attended lectures on how to build democracy....

Comparisons give a bit of perspective. In Vietnam, 55,000 US servicemen died. The figure so far in Iraq is less than 1.5 per cent of that. In the Mesopotamian campaigns of the First World War, there were more than 900,000 British and Imperial casualties (those figures include hundreds of thousands suffering from disease). Casualties among indigenous civilians are also much lower than in the great conflicts of the past. Such perspective is almost entirely lacking in television reporting.

Anyway, we are where we are, and where we are, according to all my varied collection of experts, is far from hopeless. A tyrant who ruined his country and defied the free world is in prison. Iraq is becoming more prosperous and the infrastructure is recovering, though too slowly. From July 1, it will have the inklings of self-rule.

Although the country is an artificial construction of the colonial mind, it has acquired reality over time: most of its inhabitants see themselves as Iraqis rather than solely as Kurds, Sunnis or Shias. They want an Islamic nation, but a modern one, not a theocracy. Even the main theocrats (the "moderate" Shia leaders) prefer stability to al-Sadr's Mahdi Army or Iranian intrigue. No, Iraq is not about to become Sweden on the Tigris, but it could become the fairly open, prosperous and educated society which, once upon a time, it was. If it did, it would set an example that changed the shape of the region.

And the coalition attacks on Afghanistan, and then on Iraq, not to mention missions in the Philippines, and gentler tactics in Libya and Pakistan, have made a difference. If you are Yemen, Syria, Iran, you have been given pause for thought. All these warnings against "setting the Muslim world ablaze" ignore the fact that the fire was burning fiercely before anyone thought of the war against terrorism (and that there have actually been fewer terrorist attacks since September 11 than in the preceding years).

As Osama bin Laden himself made clear in advance, the attack on the World Trade Centre was a response to American weakness, not strength. It was America's departure from Beirut in 1984, and from Mogadishu in 1993, that emboldened terrorists to further attack: imagine the violence that would follow an allied retreat from Iraq. People who want the troops to leave now must realise that they are asking for something as politically big, though perhaps not as militarily significant, as calling for all Nato troops to leave West Germany in, say, 1980....

But what is needed above all is consistent political and military willpower, publicly demonstrated and explained. Without this, the media will create the future. Mr Bush and Mr Blair need serious speeches about why it matters so much to get it right and what getting it right means.

They will, from now till polling day, be tempted to slide away from what is happening in Iraq, but they should, in fact, do the opposite, challenging their opponents to back them. In Iraq itself, they need to enforce their will quickly, preferring the quick assault to the siege. They need to keep up the push for a plural society with elections, rather than one where some new strongman is found to replace the old. And they need to make sure that trouble-making neighbours, especially Iran, are repudiated, not courted. If they blink, they lose.

(Thanks, Deacon.)

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Fri. 05/14/04 06:08:26 AM
Categorized as International & Political.