Big Bounce

I'm saying it now.

I've read here and there that, after his national convention, the presidential incumbent usually gets about two-thirds the bounce that the challenger gets after his national convention. And two-thirds of zero is zero, right? So, Bush-Cheney will get no bounce after the Republican National Convention. That's what they're saying out there.

Well, the math is right, but I think the forecast is wrong. I think Bush-Cheney will get a noticeable bounce during polling after the RNC. Double digits? I don't think so. But a bounce so big, so undeniable, that it can't be explained away by taking refuge in the margin of error or the vagaries of polling methodologies.

A corollary prediction: the New York Times, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, CBS, and/or CNN will eventually come out with poll(s) showing no RNC bounce — and they will do it by oversampling Democrats or some other similar trick. Concomittantly, the alleged no-bounce poll will get much more play in mainstream media than the big-bounce polls had gotten.

See also At Least Five, and At Least Two-Thirds.

P.S. I still don't put much stock in polls, myself.

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Fri. 08/06/04 07:07:33 PM
Categorized as Most Notable & Political.