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The Weblog at The View from the Core - Friday, October 08, 2004
   
   

"Partisan Bias in Newspapers?"

Say it ain't so!

An article by Kevin Hassett & John Lott at AEI, Oct. 6:

Economists have been puzzled this year by the persistence with which perceptions about the economy have lagged behind the economic data. For the most recent 12-month period for which we have data, for example, the economy grew almost exactly as fast as it did during the best 12-month period during President Clinton's two terms. But the economic mood of the country has been much different.
It isn't just the economy that influences people's perceptions. In research we just released, we find that media coverage is also an important determinant. We found that newspaper headlines reporting economic news on unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP), retail sales, and durable goods tended to be much more frequently negative when a Republican was in the White House. And this was true even after accounting for the economic numbers on which the stories were based and how those numbers were changing over time.
We also found that positive headlines explained whether people thought that the economy was getting better more than the economic variables themselves. Newspapers are indeed important.
There have, of course, been numerous anecdotal claims of media bias. What has been lacking has been a rigorous scientific study of media bias, and our new paper is an attempt to provide just that....

Here's the abstract:

Accusations of political bias in the media are often made by members of both political parties, yet there have been few systematic studies of such bias to date. This paper develops an econometric technique to test for political bias in news reports that controls for the underlying character of the news reported. Our results suggest that American newspapers tend to give more positive news coverage to the same economic news when Democrats are in the Presidency than for Republicans. When all types of news are pooled into a single analysis, our results are highly significant. However, the results vary greatly depending upon which economic numbers are being reported. When GDP growth is reported, Republicans received between 16 and 24 percentage point fewer positive stories for the same economic numbers than Democrats. For durable goods for all newspapers, Republicans received between 15 and 25 percentage points fewer positive news stories than Democrats. For unemployment, the difference was between zero and 21 percentage points. Retail sales showed no difference. Among the Associated Press and the top 10 papers, the Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, and New York Times tend to be the least likely to report positive news during Republican administrations, while the Houston Chronicle slightly favors Republicans. Only one newspaper treated one Republican administration significantly more positively than the Clinton administration: the Los Angeles Times' headlines were most favorable to the Reagan administration, but it still favored Clinton over either Bush administration. We also find that the media coverage affects people's perceptions of the economy. Contrary to the typical impression that bad news sells, we find that good economic news generates more news coverage and that it is usually covered more prominently. We also present some evidence that media treats parties differently when they control both the presidency and the congress.

(Thanks, Cassandra.)

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Fri. 10/08/04 06:02:36 PM
Categorized as Media.


   
   

Smackdown!

The Hailey connection.

I've been waiting for this.

In the latest Blogworthies, there are two weblog entries concerning Dr. David Hailey's attempt to demonstrate that the CBSgate memoes could have been produced on an early-1970s typewriter.

I figured that Dr. Joseph Newcomer would have a strong reply. He sure does, right here:

.... I conclude that Dr. Hailey's process for comparison has not only ignored many known facts about the environment, culture, syntax, and form of the documents, but is also scientifically flawed. Many of his assertions without proof are meaningless, and his conclusions, which includes the sentence "there seems to be nothing in the memos that indicates they are faked" cannot be supported by what he calls the "mechanics of the documents". The mechanics of the documents provide overwhelming evidence that his hypothesis is false. I conclude his methodology is poor, his assumptions are too often unfounded, and his evidence does not support his conclusion. He has ignored many fundamental principles of information theory, computer graphic theory (especially pixel quantization), and tends to make claims that are the opposite of what anyone in possession of the CBS files can themselves demonstrate beyond any question. He makes arguments that he claims would invalidate other studies, and at least two of these (his 111th example; transformations under copying, faxing, etc. changing the documents so comparisons are meaningless) are not only without merit, but contradicted by actual experience with the documents in question, a fact he is apparently able to ignore.
In addition, he makes statements that are either meaningless (allusions to "flat earth" legends) or designed to distract the reader from the actual issue (the damaged type examples, transformations under copying and faxing causing distortions that would invalidate any other study).
His results are erroneous, or unsupported by his methodology or his evidence. I state, as a peer reviewer of this paper, that his paper demonstrates a remarkable amount of poor scientific methodology, and ultimately in no way supports the hypothesis that these documents were typed on a physical typewriter that was in existence in 1972....

(Thanks, Charles.)

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Fri. 10/08/04 05:40:30 PM
Categorized as Media.


   
   

John Kerry Timeline

Lege.

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Fri. 10/08/04 05:27:20 PM
Categorized as John Kerry.


   
   

"Vets' View"

A poem by Russ Vaughn.

Our favorite Screaming Eagle Poet writes to The Blog from the Core again.

Vets' View

The thing to judge in these debates
Is what you're truly hearing;
Do you hear what George, God bless 'em, states,
Or John boy so endearing?
The Cowboy tells you it's hard work,
Not for the faint of heart,
But manicured John, that elitist jerk,
Does a global view impart.

We hear the pundits say John won,
And shake our heads and wonder;
How they disregard this Judas son,
Who made our nation sunder,
Turned on us soldiers in the field,
Accused us of war crimes,
And made our nation kneel and yield
In those disgraceful times.

It matters not how glib a man
Speaks to a listening nation.
What matters if he cut and ran,
His combat duty station—
As did tall John in sixty-eight
With purple band-aids flying,
Deserted crew, fled to his state,
To there pursue his lying.

We know this man, for we fought there;
He's but a lying traitor
Whose fancy words and fancy hair
Conceal an imitator.
Yeah, Johnny got his cuticles trimmed,
While George reviewed the gloom
Of homes and lives that had been dimmed
By nature's hand of doom.

While all you pundits say John won;
We'll take a differing view.
That inarticulate Texas son,
To us came clearly through.
He'll fight the fight and win this war,
And victory's road he'll take,
To vanquish Jihad to it's core
Unlike that Boston fake.

Russ Vaughn
2d Bn, 327th Parachute Infantry Regiment
101st Airborne Division
Vietnam 65-66

See also these.

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Fri. 10/08/04 07:55:15 AM
Categorized as Literary & Political.


   
   

Saddam-Osama Link

Asserted by none other than ABC News.

On January 14, 1999.

Here's the audio. Sorry, I don't have more info.

P.S. Found more info. Here's a transcript of the audio file:

In Germany, Mamdouh Salim, alleged to be a key military advisor and believed to be privy to bin Laden's most secret projects, is also apprehended. The U.S. government alleges he was under secret orders to procure enriched uranium for the purpose of developing nuclear weapons. These are allegations bin Laden does not now deny.
OSAMA BIN LADEN: (through translator) It would be a sin for Muslims not to try to possess the weapons that would prevent the infidels from inflicting harm on Muslims. But how we could use these weapons if we possess them is up to us.
SHEILA MACVICAR: (voice-over) With an American price on his head, there weren't many places bin Laden could go, unless he teamed up with another international pariah, one also with an interest in weapons of mass destruction.
VINCE CANNISTRARO: Osama believes in "the enemy of my enemy is my friend and is someone I should cooperate with." That's certainly the current case with Iraq.
SHEILA MACVICAR: (voice-over) Saddam Hussein has a long history of harboring terrorists. Carlos the Jackal, Abu Nidal, Abu Abbas, the most notorious terrorists of their era, all found shelter and support at one time in Baghdad. Intelligence sources say bin Laden's long relationship with the Iraqis began as he helped Sudan's fundamentalist government in their efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction.
Three weeks after the bombing, on August 31, bin Laden reaches out to his friends in Iraq and Sudan. Iraq's vice president arrives in Khartoum to show his support for the Sudanese after the U.S. attack. ABC News has learned that during these meetings, senior Sudanese officials acting on behalf of bin Laden ask if Saddam Hussein would grant him asylum.
Iraq was, indeed, interested. ABC News has learned that in December, an Iraqi intelligence chief, named Farouk Hijazi, how Iraq's ambassador to Turkey, made a secret trip to Afghanistan to meet with bin Laden. Three intelligence agencies tell ABC News they cannot be certain what was discussed, but almost certainly, they say, bin Laden has been told he would be welcome in Baghdad.
And intelligence sources say they can only speculate on the purpose of an alliance. What could bin Laden offer Saddam Hussein? Only days after he meets Iraqi officials, bin Laden tells ABC News that his network is wide, and there are people prepared to commit terror in his name who he does not even control.
OSAMA BIN LADEN: (through translator) It is our job to incite and to instigate. By the grace of God, we did that, and certain people responded to this instigation.

See also Connect the Dots... Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden.

Lane Core Jr. CIW P — Fri. 10/08/04 07:45:07 AM
Categorized as International.


   

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